The Boise State Conundrum

I am willing to admit when I am wrong.

I was wrong about last night on a variety of levels. I was wrong about it being a low scoring game, and I was wrong about Bosie State losing.

It's not because I don't like Boise State; I actually root for the Broncos because I think it might create the chaos necessary to get the ball rolling towards a playoff.

Yes, I am a playoff proponent, in part because it's nonsensical that in this day and age, when every other NCAA sport has a playoff that decides the champion, the participants in the national title game of the lead sport in college are picked by coaches, people formerly associated with the game, and a byzantine computer algorithm.

I am the kind of person who looks to the past to try and understand the present. How did we get here, etc. What I wanted to look at with regards to Boise State is how did we get here.

We all know about Boise State's impressive run through the WAC; they have won or shared tthe league title all but two years since joining it in 2001 (2001 and 2007 when Louisiana Tech and Hawai'i won it, respectively). Not only that, but outside of 2005' split title with Nevada, Boise State has gone undefeated every year it's won the WAC.

The WAC has been in a state of flux all of that time due to the comings and goings of teams and the reshuffling that took place due to the ACC expansion in 2004. What I wanted to focus on today was how Boise State has done in the part of the schedule that they have been able to control historically (to some degree). I wanted to see how the Broncos have fared in the non-conference portion of their schedule since joining the WAC in 2001.

So to the history books and the dusty parts of the interwebs where such data resides. I'd like to thank College Football Data Warehouse for providing me with the schedules for Boise State.

For this, I'll list the home games in blue and road games in red. Bowl games and neutral site games are listed in black. This includes the games through last night. (And yes, last night was considered a neutral site, even if it was a de facto home game for Virginia Tech. )

Rankings for opponents are from the coaches poll and reflect the team's rankings at the time of the game. Opponent's home conference in parentheses.

2001 (non-conference record: 2-2)
@ #21 South Carolina: L 13-32 (SEC)
Washington State: L 20-41 (Pac-10)
@ Idaho: W 45-13 (Sunbelt)
Central Michigan: W 26-10 (MAC)

2002 (4-1)
Idaho: W 38-21 (Sunbelt)
@Arkansas: L 14-41 (SEC)
@ Wyoming: W 35-13 (MWC)
Utah State: W 63-38 (Sunbelt)
Iowa State: W 34-16 in Humanitarian Bowl (Big 12)

2003 (4-1)
Idaho State: W 63-0 (I-AA)
@Idaho: W 24-10 (Sunbelt)
@Oregon State: L 24-26 (Pac-1o)
Wyoming: W 33-17 (MWC)
#19 TCU: W 34-31 in Fort Worth Bowl (C-USA)

2004 (3-1)
Idaho: W 65-7 (Sunbelt)
Oregon State: W 30-27 (Pac-10)
BYU: W 28-27 (MWC)
#8 Louisville: L 41-44 in Liberty Bowl (C-USA)

2005 (2-3)
@ #13 Georgia: L 13-48 (SEC)
@Oregon State: L 27-30 (Pac-10)
Bowling Green: W 48-20 (MAC)
Portland State: W 21-14 (I-AA)
#19 Boston College: L 21-27 in MPC Computers Bowl (ACC)

2006 (5-0)
Sacramento State: W 45-0 (I-AA)
Oregon State: W 42-14 (Pac-10)
@Wyoming: W 17-10 (MWC)
@Utah: W 36-3 (MWC)
#10 Oklahoma: W 43-42 in OT in Fiesta Bowl (Big 12)

2007 (3-2)
Weber State: W 56-7 (I-AA)
@Washington: L 10-24 (Pac-10)
Wyoming: W 24-14 (MWC)
Southern Mississippi: W 38-16 (C-USA)
East Carolina: L 38-41 in Hawai'i Bowl (C-USA)

2008 (4-1)
Idaho State: W 49-7 (I-AA)
Bowling Green: W 20-7 (MAC)
@ #12 Oregon: W 37-32 (Pac-10)
@Southern Mississippi: W 24-7 (C-USA)
#11 TCU: L 16-17 in SDCCU Poinsettia Bowl (MWC)

2009 (6-0)
#14 Oregon: W 19-8 (Pac-10)
Miami (OH): W 48-0 (MAC)
@Bowling Green: W 49-14 (MAC)
UC Davis: W 34-16 (I-AA)
@ Tulsa: W 28-21 (C-USA)
#3 TCU: W 17-10 in Fiesta Bowl (MWC)

2010 (1-0)
#6 Virginia Tech: W 33-30 in neutral site in Landover, MD (ACC)

So, for the record, since 2001:
Non-conference: 34-11 (including bowl games)
Bowl games: 4-4
BCS bowl games: 2-0
Vs. BCS conference schools: 7-8
vs. TCU: 2-1
vs. BYU: 1-0
vs. Utah: 1-0
vs. SEC: 0-3 (all on the road)
vs. Top-25 opponents: 6-5 (but on a 5-1 streak since playing Oklahoma in Fiesta Bowl)

It's not like this program is a flash in the pan. The Broncos have been steadily building themselves for the better part of a decade. Dan Hawkins started the job, but the program has hit another gear since Chris Petersen took over before the 2006 season, when the Broncos really started to become a national name.

What has some hands wringing already, though, is now that the Broncos have cleared the early season hurdle (although Oregon State still comes to the blue turf in two weeks) of a top-10 opponent, how far/how high will Boise State rise. They were moved up from number five to number three in the coaches poll released today, but we won't get the Harris Poll results for another couple of weeks, and the BCS standings sometime in late October.

When some more games get played and some things shake out, I don't see the Broncos being higher than number three in the BCS standings if Ohio State and Alabama handle their business. The albatross that is the weekly WAC power rating (and I think a couple of losses) will keep Boise State from Glendale.

Then again, stranger seasons have occurred recently....