Lately, as I've been driving around town, I've heard a promo for Colin Cowherd's radio show. I'm not the biggest fan of Cowherd (I find him to be condescending, pompous and arrogant) but the premise of the promo is interesting.
Cowherd was asking, based on the fact that Colorado and Nebraska are soon departing the Big 12, who the third best football program in the conference will be.
It got me to thinking: Based on record, who actually has been the best in the league over the last fifteen years.
So I went to the record book (i.e. College Football Data Warehouse) and took a look at the records for everyone in the conference from the inaugural season (1996) through last year (2009).
Note that in my analysis, I did not count title games as conference games, but I did color code the winner to clarify who is the recognized champion.
Some thoughts:
1. Texas is number one both in overall record and in conference wins/losses during this time period, posting a .785 record in conference games and .782 overall.
2. Nebraska and Oklahoma are tied for second in overall winning percentage (.716) but Oklahoma leads in conference winning percentage (.714 to .669).
3. Texas has almost as many losses (39) as Baylor does wins (43) in the same time period.
4. Three teams have won the South Division title outright (Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma) with one getting a partial share in 2008 (Texas Tech).
5. Four teams have won or shared the North title (Kansas State, Missouri, Nebraska, Colorado)
6. Oklahoma has won the conference title game six times. Second is Texas with three.
7. Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas have each won one BCS title.
Now, here's the funny thing about the initial question as posed by Cowherd, and maybe it's the dirty little secret that some folks don't realize:
Colorado hasn't really been a player in the Big 12 since 2002. Sure, they won two North Division titles in 2004 and 2005, but 4-4 and 5-3 conference records don't exactly mean that you were a superpower. The North Division was going through, for lack of a better term, a malaise.
Okay, malaise isn't quite right. The North was putrid in 2004 and 2005. Someone had to win it, and Colorado was the best of a sad, sorry bunch of teams.
And yes, while Nebraska has name recognition and a great, glorious history, they haven't really been setting the world alight since Dr. Tom retired as head coach and Frank Solich was forced into exile in Athens, Ohio.
Bo Pelini has done a great job so far, and maybe he will be able to resurrect the program wholly and make the 'Huskers a national power again. Hell, if they can get a half decent, consistent offense that might do it. The defensive talent is definitely there.
Yes, losing Nebraska will deal a blow to the name recognition of the conference, and also may be the loss of a great program. I don't think the loss of Colorado hurts the Big 12 all that much.
But who will fill the void?
If one is to go by the numbers historically, it would be Texas A&M, Texas Tech or Kansas State. They are the only other programs (besides the aforementioned) that are over .500 in conference for the history of the league.
But Texas Tech is going through a coaching (and philosophy) transition, and I don't know if Tommy Tuberville will stay in Lubbock for that long if he can win and win big.
Texas A&M might be ascendant, but as long as defensive inconsistency continues to plague this team, they will spin their wheels under Mike Sherman.
And while Bill Snyder was called in to fix the mess of Ron Prince, Snyder's age, and the change in the college football universe since his first reclamation of the Wildcats don't seem to be in his favor.
Baylor and Iowa State don't have much of a track record at all.
Kansas is also going through a coaching change right now, and I wonder about Turner Gill and if he might be overrated for one winning season at Buffalo.
Missouri and Oklahoma State have had their moments lately, but are still viewed as nouveau riche programs that have to establish more of a work history (again, consistency) than the last four or five years.
Quite frankly, maybe there isn't anyone that will fill the "void" (if you want to view it that way) being left by Colorado and Nebraska. It could be that, really, since about 2002, there hasn't been a void anyway. There's been a glut of teams that go anywhere from 6-6 to 8-4 in the regular season, with maybe a program or two bubbling up to give Oklahoma and Texas a run for their money.
But from looking at things, it seems that the future of the Big 12 will be the same as its present a recent past:
Texas, Oklahoma and everyone else.
