Pac-10 Expansion Round 3: C.R.E.A.M.

(For previous installments on Pac-10 Expansion, visit here and here.)

Round three of Pac-10 expansion talk has us looking at some financial information about the current membership of the conference and the contenders.

The information looked at in this exercise is taken from reports that the colleges and universities across this land submitted to the U.S. Department of Education's Office of Postsecondary Education. The site "Equity in Athletics Data Analysis" has all of the nasty bits about how much schools spend on athletics.

Time to make some more sausage.

The factors we are examining today for the schools are:
1) Number of players on the football team
2) Operating expenses per player
3)  Expenses by the football program
4) Revenue brought in by the football program
5) Profit/loss by the football program
6) Athletic department revenue
7) Athletic department expenses
8) Profit/loss by the athletic department

The numbers are from the last fiscal year for higher education (July 1, 2008-June 30, 2009). Before we go any further, let me post the cautionary note from the OPE:

"Please note that valid comparisons of athletics data are possible only with study and analysis of the conditions affecting each institution"

Everyone got that? Okay?

Great. Here we go:

Pac-10 Financial Analysis 

Once again, it appears that the best fit for the Pac-10 if it were to expand would include some combination of Colorado, BYU and Utah. While their spending habits (especially for BYU and Utah) are more in line fiscally with Washington State than with, say, USC, they are definitely ahead of Fresno State or Boise State with regards to the funds available and funds expended.

Pac-10 Expansion Round 2: Television Market Share

In the first round of Pac-10 expansion talks, I posted the reputational academic bonafides of the current Pac-10 Schools and their potential new brethern.

In this round, we will look at the television markets that are currently being utilized and what a newcomer would have to offer.

Now, when talking markets, we are going to refer to the specific regional markets for these teams. The market sizes are done based off of data from Nielsen Media Research.

So, while Oregon games might be shown in Portland, the designated market for Oregon is Eugene.

It's important to note that the Pac-10 has six schools in the top fifteen markets, including two teams in the number two market of Los Angeles, CA. So, obviously, the Pac-10 would probably want to bring in a market with a pretty significant reach.

Also note that some markets encompass more than one city.

First, the Pac-10 schools. Home market in parentheses:
Arizona (Tucson): 66
Arizona State (Phoenix): 12
California (San Francisco/Oakland/San Jose): 6
Oregon (Eugene): 119
Oregon State (Eugene): 119
Stanford (San Francisco/Oakland/San Jose): 6
UCLA (Los Angeles): 2
USC (Los Angeles): 2
Washington (Seattle/Tacoma): 13
Washington State (Spokane): 75

And the potential contenders that I have identified for ascencion to the Pac-10:
Boise State (Boise): 112
Brigham Young (Salt Lake City): 31
Colorado (Denver): 16
Fresno State (Fresno/Visalia): 55
Utah (Salt Lake City): 31

As in round one, it looks like Colorado, Utah and BYU are the front runners after round two, as the Denver and Salt Lake City markets outpace Fresno and Boise.

Pac-10 Expansion Round 1: Academics

So now that the call has gone out from Pac-10 commish Larry Scott that the Pac-10 will be looking into expansion by two members over the next 12 months or so, I thought it would be fitting to jump on the bandwagon and see who the most likely candidates are.

Immediately, because this is football driven, the most likely candidates that came to mind for most folks were BYU and Utah. Boise State, Colorado and even Fresno State have been mentioned in some circles as potential targets as well.

Since the Big Ten is also mulling expansion (as I wrote about here), I thought it would be a good time to do some in-depth analysis of the situations.

We'll get to the Big Ten soon. Let's start with some Pac-10 comparisons.

Expansion at this point is being driven by the almighty dollar and by football; conference championship games are viewed as cash cows by the leagues, and as a way to stay relevant and potentially get two teams into the BCS.

Now, I have made no secret of my disdain for the BCS. I even advocated for radical realignment at one point, but that's another column.

The question, for me, that arises outside of the on-the-field impact has to be off-the-field as well. Namely, when the Pac-10 and Big Ten expand, I think that they are going to look for schools that are in the same neighborhood academically.

Remember, the conferences are not only who you play on the field; often, they are the people you collaborate with and compete with off the field and in the classroom, too.

The Pac-10 has a reputation as being one of the stronger conferences academically, so that part of the profile is what we will examine first for these schools.

While the metrics I am about to use are by no means perfect, they can provide us with a portrait of what candidates may fit best for the Pac-10.

I am keeping the list of potential members to the five schools mentioned at the top of this piece; while other schools may get floated out there for consideration, I think that the final applicant pool for these two open positions will come down to these five.

The four things we will look at as we compare the candidates to the current Pac-10 are:

1. Is the school a member of the Association of American Universities?
2. How is the school basically classified by the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching (aka "Carnegie Classification", or "What kind of school are you?")
3. What is the school's US News and World Report National University Ranking?
4. What is the overall enrollment of the institution? That includes all students, undergraduate and graduate.

I added enrollment because that gives us an idea of just how big (or small) an institution is with regards to its student body. The US News Rankings are reputational. AAU membership is a badge of some prestige, and the Carnegie Classification focuses on how you teach and research.

So, for the Pac-10:

Arizona:
AAU member: Yes
Carnegie Classification: Research University/Very High Research Activity (RU/VH)
US News National Ranking: 102 (highest ranking number assigned—128)
Enrollment: 36,932

Arizona State:
AAU member: No
Carnegie Classification: Research University/Very High Research Activity (RU/VH)
US News National Ranking: 121
Enrollment: 49,171

California (University of California-Berkeley):
AAU member: Yes
Carnegie Classification: Research University/Very High Research Activity (RU/VH)
US News National Ranking: 21
Enrollment: 32803

Oregon:
AAU member: Yes
Carnegie Classification: Research University/High Research Activity (RU/H)
US News National Ranking: 115
Enrollment: 20,296

Oregon State:
AAU member: NO
Carnegie Classification: Research University/Very High Research Activity (RU/VH)
US News National Ranking: Tier 3
Enrollment: 19,193

Stanford:
AAU member: Yes
Carnegie Classification: Research University/Very High Research Activity (RU/VH)
US News National Ranking: 4
Enrollment: 18,836

UCLA (University of California-Los Angeles):
AAU member: Yes
Carnegie Classification: Research University/Very High Research Activity (RU/VH)
US News National Ranking: 24
Enrollment: 35,966

USC (University of Southern California):
AAU member: Yes
Carnegie Classification: Research University/Very High Research Activity (RU/VH)
US News National Ranking: 26
Enrollment: 32,160

Washington:
AAU member: Yes
Carnegie Classification: Research University/Very High Research Activity (RU/VH)
US News National Ranking: 42
Enrollment: 39,199

Washington State:
AAU member: No
Carnegie Classification: Research University/Very High Research Activity (RU/VH)
US News National Ranking: 106
Enrollment: 23,241

Average ranking for the Pac-10: 62.3 (for the 9 ranked schools)
Average enrollment: 30,780

And now, the contenders:

Boise State:
AAU member: No
Carnegie Classification: Master's Colleges and Universities: Larger Programs
US News National Ranking: n/a
Enrollment: 18,332

BYU (Brigham Young University):
AAU member: No
Carnegie Classification: Research University/High Research Activity (RU/H)
US News National Ranking: 71
Enrollment: 34,347

Colorado:
AAU member: Yes
Carnegie Classification: Research University/Very High Research Activity (RU/VH)
US News National Ranking: 77
Enrollment: 32,362

Fresno State (California State University-Fresno):
AAU member: No
Carnegie Classification: Master's Colleges and Universities: Larger Programs
US News National Ranking: n/a
Enrollment: 19,781

Utah:
AAU member: Yes
Carnegie Classification: Research University/Very High Research Activity (RU/VH)
US News National Ranking: 106
Enrollment: 28,933

So while AAU membership is not a total barrier to being a member of the Pac-10, I do think that it becomes clear, from looking at some of this information, that BYU, Colorado and Utah are the top three contenders for expansion from an academic standpoint.

But fear not, for we will also look at other factors in the coming days that may influences things in other directions.