Tuesday, January 5, 2010

BCS Doomsday scenario

So last night's Fiesta Bowl was a solid defensive struggle, and Boise State came out victorious over TCU 17-10.

For some folks, the game was an absolute snoozer, although if Texas and Alabama play the exact same game, it is hailed as a great defensive struggle for the ages.

I still believe that neither school was really served by playing each other and could have made a greater case for inclusion if both had played automatic qualifying opponents (Iowa and Georgia Tech).

But I've been doing some thinking about the whole BCS mess as I do on an annual basis, and I've reached this conclusion:

Boise State continuing to go undefeated and winning BCS bowl games is not going to be enough to trigger armageddon for the BCS.

I think the circumstances were in place for it to happen this year, with 5 undefeated teams heading into the bowls.

But the teams that were undefeated were not the proper schools.

Let's play the scenario out from December 5th, but we'll swap out a couple of teams.

Heading into play that morning, we had six undefeated teams:

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Boise State
5. TCU
6. Cincinnati

Florida and Alabama were playing against each other in an elimination game, so obviously, we were left with five teams.

But what would have happened if we changed teams four, five and six so that the list of undefeated teams looked like this:

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Iowa
5. Ohio State
6. USC


Yes, the above scenario could be plausible some years. Remember, the Big Ten does not play a total round robin schedule, so the potential for two undefeated 12-0 teams is in play.

(I know, I know; Iowa and Ohio State played this year. Let's assume that they didn't.)

Florida and Alabama still play their steel cage death match in Atlanta and someone gets eliminated. Texas comes through unscathed, and let's say USC beats whomever they are playing by about a touchdown in a low scoring affair.

So you have the Big Ten co-champs and the Pac-10 champ left out in the cold, hoping for a split title care of the Associated Press—assuming that they don't lay an egg in the Rose Bowl.

Yeah, let's have that happen and see if the agitation for a playoff doesn't begin.

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